July 2025 Market Wrap: Property Prices Are Still Rising — And Supply’s Still Not Coming

Monthly Property Market Wrap
Written By Shirley Druyeh

We’ve passed the halfway mark in 2025, and two things are clearer than ever:

  1. Housing prices are still rising — modestly but steadily

  2. Construction activity remains far too weak to ease affordability

This month’s data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) confirms the above statements.
Australia’s property market isn’t overheating — but it’s definitely not cooling either. That’s largely because we’re still not building enough homes.

If you’re a buyer, renter, investor, or homeowner trying to figure out what’s next, here’s what the July data is really telling us.

📈 What’s Happening in the Residential Market (Cotality Home Value Index – July 2025)

According to Cotality’s National Home Value Index:

  • 📊 July marked the 6th consecutive month of national growth

  • 🏙 Sydney values rose 0.6% — the same as June — with houses driving most of the gains

  • 🧱 Nationally, house values rose 1.9% over the past 3 months, vs. 1.4% for units

  • 📉 Rents are re-accelerating: up 1.1% nationally over the past 3 months

  • 💡 Affordability remains a key barrier, but low listings and improving sentiment are keeping the market moving

“Every capital city recorded a rise in dwelling values in July.” — Tim Lawless, Head of Research, Cotality

Sydney spotlight:

  • Detached house values are up 3.3% year-to-date

  • Unit values have only risen 0.7%

  • The gap between median house and unit prices in Sydney is now $658,000 — a record-high

  • Sydney rents rose 0.4% in July — the strongest monthly growth since April 2024

Cotality Home Value Index – July 2025. Source: CoreLogic/Cotality Monthly Report”

Cotality Home Value Index – July 2025. Source: CoreLogic/Cotality Monthly Report

Cotality Home Value Index – July 2025. Source: CoreLogic/Cotality Monthly Report”

Cotality Home Value Index – July 2025. Source: CoreLogic/Cotality Monthly Report

🛠️ What’s Happening in Construction (Cotality / Cordell – July 2025)

The July market update includes integrated data from Cordell, Cotality’s construction analytics platform.
While the report was released in July 2025, the construction figures refer to activity recorded in May 2025.

This is not an error — it reflects how construction data is reported:

📊 Construction data naturally lags behind residential market figures because it takes time to confirm planning approvals, funding, and project commencements.

Unlike housing values (updated in near real-time), Cordell’s construction data is based on verified project milestones — meaning May data is the most recent reliable snapshot at the time of publication.

With that in mind, here’s what the Cordell data for May tells us about construction activity feeding into July’s housing pressures:

  • 🏗 1,127 new construction projects were identified in May

  • 🚧 Only 81 moved into construction — down from 207 the year prior

  • 🏘 Apartments/units = just 10.2% of total new project types

  • 📉 Approvals are lagging, especially across multi-unit residential

This helps explain why prices continue rising even as buyer demand is constrained:
There’s simply not enough new housing supply hitting the market.

“It’s hard to see the cumulative shortfall in newly built homes being addressed within the next couple of years — at least.” — Tim Lawless, Cotality

💬 From a Quantity Surveyor’s Perspective

The market feels stable — even promising in places — but that’s not because affordability has improved.

It’s because we’re in a supply squeeze.
And building new housing in Australia still isn’t cheap.

💡 What is a Supply Squeeze?

A supply squeeze happens when demand stays strong, but new housing supply is limited - not enough new homes are being built or listed — so the homes that do exist become more expensive to rent or buy, driving up prices and rents.

  • 🧱 Slow construction starts
  • 🏛 Planning delays
  • 👷🏽‍♂️ Labour shortages
  • 🏘️ Few listings or new approvals

📉 This means prices often rise even when buyers are stretched, simply because there aren’t enough homes to go around.

Example:

  • The median apartment/unit project that entered construction in June was valued at $9.8 million

  • Assuming 20–25 apartments in that project, this puts base construction cost per unit at $400K–$500K

  • Add land, compliance, marketing, finance, and developer margin — and you quickly reach $700K–$800K+ sale prices, even for modest-sized apartments

So if you’ve recently bought — or are looking to — it’s important to understand:
You’re not necessarily overpaying. You’re paying the real cost of delivering housing in one of the world’s most expensive construction markets.

🔍 Can Housing Ever Be Cheaper?

Not unless we shift the system itself. Here’s a realistic look:

Lever Could It Help? Realistic Soon? Barrier
AI or automation ✅ Yes ❌ No Still a hands-on industry
Modular/prefab ✅ Yes 🔶 Maybe Not scaled yet in cities
Skilled migration ✅ Yes ✅ Yes Politically sensitive
Training local workers ✅ Yes ❌ Not quickly Multi-year runway
Planning reform ✅ Yes ❌ Slow Council/state politics
Mass public housing ✅ Yes ❌ Underfunded Lacks bipartisan support
Interest rate cuts ✅ Short-term ✅ Yes Can fuel demand, not supply

So yes, affordability can improve — but not from waiting.
It’ll take reform, innovation, and commitment from all levels of government and industry.

🧭 What This Means for You

You Are... What You Need to Know
🏠 First-home buyer Price growth is modest but real. If your finances are strong, acting sooner may beat waiting — especially with so little new housing stock entering the market.

With the RBA delivering a rate cut in August — and banks expected to pass this on — we may see a fresh wave of buyer activity in the coming months. If that happens, today’s modest growth could quickly accelerate as borrowing capacity improves.
🧍🏿‍♀️ Renter Rents are rising again. With vacancy rates still tight and new apartment construction lagging, pressure on tenants is likely to persist without significant supply-side change.
🏡 Homeowner Your equity is stable — and likely strengthening — thanks to low stock and slow new supply. Even modest growth means your property remains well-supported in this market.
🏗️ Small investor/developer It’s a cautious market, but high demand and low supply could create opportunities for those with sound strategy and strong risk management. Focus on lean, in-demand developments.

🎙 Final Word

The story in July 2025 is a familiar one:

We’re seeing stable growth.
We’re not building fast enough.
And the cost of building is still a barrier to real affordability.

The smartest decision is not to wait — it’s to act from a place of information, not frustration.

And that’s what I’m here to help with.

Books & Resources That Helped Me Rewire My Financial Thinking

Here are a few books that really helped me shift my mindset and understand money in a healthier, more empowering way:

You can also find more resources and books on my blog, including tools I’ve used personally.

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📢 Affiliate Disclaimer: Some of the links in this post are affiliate links, which means I may earn a small commission at no extra cost to you if you purchase through them. I only recommend products I trust and believe will add value to my readers.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute personal financial, legal, or investment advice. The insights provided reflect the author’s personal perspective as a property owner and Quantity Surveyor, and are not tailored to your individual circumstances. You should seek independent, licensed advice before making any financial or property-related decisions.

Shirley Druyeh

Shirley Druyeh is a writer, creator, and quantity surveyor redefining what work and wealth look like. Based in Sydney, Australia, she is Ghanaian and British—born in Ghana, raised in the UK, and now an Australian citizen. She writes about financial freedom, homeownership, identity, and the journey of redesigning your life—one decision at a time. Her work explores the intersections of money, independence, womanhood, and what it means to build a meaningful life beyond the 9–5.

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